Jan 16 update

A delegation of American former officials met William Lai Ching-te, the president-elect of Taiwan, and Tsai Ing-wen, the current president. The officials said that America’s commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid”, and praised the island’s democratic processes. Mr Lai expressed his desire to deepen relations with America. The visit came as Nauru, a small Pacific island nation, cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan after the election. Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister accused China of trying to “seize Taiwan’s diplomatic relations” by poaching Nauru.

America said a Houthi missile struck an American-owned cargo ship off the south coast of Yemen. Nobody was injured. Earlier on Monday America shot down a missile directed at a Navy vessel by Houthi rebels. Last week America launched air strikes on the Iran-backed militant group in Yemen. Rishi Sunak, Britain’s prime minister, said that 13 Houthi military targets were destroyed in the strikes.

Donald Trump and other Republican presidential candidates urged their supporters to brave icy weather to vote in the Iowa caucuses on Monday. Speaking at a rally in the city of Indianola, Mr Trump said his nomination would send a message “to the entire world”. The former president is the first choice of nearly half of probable Republican caucus-goers, according to polls.

Around 10,000 farmers parked trucks and tractors in one of Berlin’s central avenues to protest against taxes. The demonstration was set off by the government’s decision to end subsidies for fuel used in agriculture and to cut an exemption from car tax for farm vehicles. Christian Lindner, Germany’s finance minister, told farmers at the protest that the government “can’t promise” more “state aid”.

Industrial production in the eurozone fell by 0.3% month on month in November—the third consecutive decrease. Output was down by 6.8% from a year earlier. The slump was largely driven by contractions in Germany and Italy. The eurozone economy is in trouble: a shrinking manufacturing sector and sluggish services growth indicate that it fell into recession during the fourth quarter of 2023.

Bernardo Arévalo was sworn in as Guatemala’s president. His inauguration was delayed after the Supreme Court allowed opposition politicians to retain control of Congress, limiting Mr Arévalo’s authority. Eventually, though, a lawmaker from Semilla—Mr Arévalo’s progressive party—was elected as Congress’s president. Mr Arévalo’s opponents have tried to prevent him taking office since his landslide victory in elections in August.

A volcano erupted in Iceland, unleashing molten lava on the town of Grindavik, setting buildings on fire. Gudni Johannesson, Iceland’s president, said that no lives were in danger. It is the second eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula in south-west Iceland in less than a month. Defences built after the first eruption helped contain the lava.

Figure of the day: 1.45°C, how much warmer the world was in 2023 than in pre-industrial times—close to the symbolic warming threshold of 1.5°C. Read the full story.

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PHOTO: AP

Iowa’s Republican caucuses

Donald Trump appears to be coasting toward the Republican Party’s nomination for president. But on Monday he will face his first real electoral test: the Iowa caucuses.

Mr Trump is the first choice of 48% of probable Republican caucus-goers, according to a poll from NBC News and the Des Moines Register. Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, and Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, trail by some 30 points as they battle for second place. Both remain longshots. But a strong showing in the Hawkeye State could provide momentum for future contests.

A bigger upset for Mr Trump could come from the weather. Sub-zero temperatures could affect turnout and the outcome of the caucuses, which require Iowans to attend lengthy in-person events rather than simply cast a ballot and go home. Democrats may have a more comfortable time. This year, for the first time ever, they will choose their candidate by mail.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

After 100 days the Gaza war staggers on

Thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv at the weekend to mark 100 days of war in Gaza—and to demand a deal that would free the roughly 130 hostages still held there, even if it stops the fighting. Around the world, meanwhile, thousands of people attended pro-Palestinian protests that called for a ceasefire to end a conflict which has killed at least 23,000 Gazans.

Yet no such deal seems imminent. Israeli troops are still combing northern Gaza for tunnel shafts and searching the southern city of Khan Younis for Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza. The army chief urges “patience”.

Egypt, which has replaced Qatar as the main mediator between Israel and Hamas, is trying to broker an agreement to release the remaining hostages. Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, may, one day, have to choose between securing their freedom and continuing to fight Hamas—the war’s two irreconcilable aims. For now, though, that war grinds on.

PHOTO: EPA

The World Economic Forum in Davos

Political and business leaders from around the world descend on the Swiss alpine resort of Davos this week for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. More than 60 heads of state and government are expected to attend, including Li Qiang, China’s premier, and Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, who will address the conference and is promoting his plan to end the war in his country. They will rub shoulders with more than 1,000 company bosses and financiers.

Topics of debate are likely to range from the threat of escalation in the Middle East and the consequences of disruption in the Red Sea for global supply chains, to the economic potential of generative artificial intelligence. But in 2024, which is the biggest election year in history, bosses will be keen to understand what political changes could mean for their business. Expect America’s presidential election, and the possible return of Donald Trump, to feature especially prominently.

PHOTO: GETTY

An unhappy new year for German business

On Monday Germany’s statistics agency released figures for last year’s GDP. Europe’s biggest economy shrunk in 2023 by 0.3%—making it the only big economy to contract. Last year ended with an unexpected drop in business confidence. The outlook for 2024 is hardly rosier.

Germany is facing headwinds including a budgetary crisis, high interest rates and high energy prices. Several prominent economists predict another year of contraction. Businesses are struggling. Last week Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof, a chain of department stores, became the first high-profile collapse of the year.

In a country admired for its stability, labour relations are unusually fraught too. Train drivers have walked out and doctors are threatening to. A demonstration in Berlin on Monday will mark the end of a week of action by farmers, who blocked roads with their green tractors. Despite the government agreeing to their demands over fuel subsidies the Mistgabelmop (“pitchfork mob”) have pledged to keep up the disruption.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

A delayed Emmy awards

After a troubled year in Hollywood, stars and executives will be relieved that the awards season is now under way. A week after the Golden Globes, the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place in Los Angeles on Monday night. Hosted by Anthony Anderson, the star of “Black-ish”, a sitcom, the Emmys celebrate the best American television aired between June 2022 and May 2023. Traditionally held in September, the Emmys ceremony was postponed because of the Hollywood strikes, which saw around 11,500 writers and 160,000 actors down tools for months last year. It is the first time the Emmys have been delayed since 2001, when they were disrupted by the attacks of 9/11.

“The Last of Us”, “The White Lotus” and “Ted Lasso” have all been nominated in multiple categories. But “Succession”, a business saga, and “The Bear”, a dark comedy about a troubled chef, are tipped to do well—both swept the floor at the Golden Globes.