Shares in PacWest, a mid-sized bank, fell by 28%, as investors remained nervous about the prospects forAmerica’s regional lenders. The share price of Western Alliance, another bank considered vulnerable to a run on its deposits, also plunged. Regulators had hoped to halt the bank-share sell-off when they arranged JPMorgan Chase’s acquisition ofFirst Republiclast weekend.
Israeliforces andPalestinianarmed groups inGazareportedly agreed to a ceasefire. The truce follows fighting on Tuesday, provoked by the death in Israeli custody of Khader Adnan, a high-profile Palestinian prisoner. Some rockets had been fired towards Israel. The “reciprocal and simultaneous” ceasefire was brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the UN, two Palestinian officials told Reuters.
The chief executives of Anthropic, Alphabet’s Google, Microsoft and OpenAI will meetKamala Harris,America’s vice-president, and other Biden administration officials on Thursday to discussworriesaboutartificial intelligence. The White House said it expected their firms, which have launched AI chatbots, to “make sure their products are safe”. Meanwhile, the co-founders of LinkedIn and DeepMind, an AI research company, launched Pi, another new chatbot.
The leaders ofSudan’swarring factions agreed to a one-weektrucefrom Thursday and will select envoys for peace talks, according to neighbouring South Sudan, which has been working to negotiate an end to the fighting. Air strikes and shooting nearKhartoum, the capital, undermined the latest ceasefire.
An explosion derailed a freight train in south-westRussia, near the border with Belarus and Ukraine. Officials called it “illegal interference in the work of railway transport”. The area has been subject tosabotage attackssince the start of the war. A similar incident on Monday, closer to the border withUkraine, caused another train to catch fire.
Greece’shighest court upheld legislation that in effect bans the far-right Greeks party from standing in upcomingparliamentary elections. It is believed to be the first such disqualification since the end of military rule in 1974. In February lawmakers barred parties headed by anyone convicted of serious crimes. Until recently the Greeks were led by a neo-Nazi who is currently in prison.
Three of the world’s ten highest-paid athletes have links toSaudi Arabia, according toForbes. The magazine’s ranking highlights the kingdom’s growing clout in sport. Cristiano Ronaldo—the world’s best-paid athlete, who will earn an estimated $136m in 2023—recently signed for aSaudi football club, Al-Nassr. Two golfers, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson, make the list after joining the breakawaySaudi-funded LIV Golf tour. Mr Johnson didn’t make the top 50 in 2022.
Fact of the day:80%, the proportion of Afghanistan’s 2.5m school-age women and girls who are not being educated.Read the full story.
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Press freedom is in decline
The spread of authoritarianism and attacks on democracy have eroded press freedom around the world. A2022analysis of 180 countries by Reporters Without Borders, a non-profit group, classified the situation as “very bad” in 28 countries—a record number. Its latest analysis will be published on Wednesday, designated as World Press Freedom Day by the United Nations.
It will probably show that things have become even worse. Attacks on journalists, both physical and online, are all too common. The Russian authorities’ arrest ofEvan Gershkovich, a correspondent for theWall Street Journal, in March on spurious charges showed the extreme lengths governments will go to silence reporters.
The media also increasingly faces another, more insidious, threat: fake news.Artificial intelligenceis making it easier to tamper with content and pump out disinformation. When the public no longer knows what to believe, the job of a newsroom is tougher than ever.
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The Fed’s final hike?
The market’s mantra is “one and done”. America’s Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, in what would be the tenth increase in a row. Investors expect the Fed to lift short-term borrowing rates to a floor of 5%, up from 0% in March 2022—the country’s sharpest monetary tightening in four decades. But as suggested by the motto—which should perhaps be the less pithy “onemoreand done”—many think this should be the final turn of the screw.
The Fed’s rapid tightening has engendered financial risks, as evidenced bybank failuresin recent weeks. And America’s economy is slowing: employment data released on Friday is likely to show another drop in job creation last month (though no recession, yet). But inflation—the trigger for the tightening—remains uncomfortably high. So even if the next rate increase is the final one in this cycle, the Fed may signal that it will keep rates high until inflation is vanquished.
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A deadline for Ukraine’s grain deal
Talks on extending a deal designed to allow Ukrainian ports to export grain are due to resume on Wednesday. The initial agreement, brokered by the UN and Turkey last July, granted Russiasanctionsrelief on agricultural produce in exchange for unblocking Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. But it expires on May 18th, and the Kremlin has indicated that it is unwilling to agree to an extension.
Ukrainian officials say that Russia is undermining the agreement anyway. One minister has accused it of making exports unviable by taking longer to inspect Ukrainian vessels for no apparent reason. Even with the deal in place grain exports currently stand at around 30% of the pre-war norm. (In peacetime, Ukraine’s ports could export up to 7m tonnes a month.)
To get around Russia’s troublemaking Ukraine has been developing export terminals along the Danube. These ports’ proximity to the territorial waters of Romania, a NATO member, helps protect them from Russian guns. Yet few observers think exports from the Danube can fully compensate for the Black Sea. A lot rides on renewing the deal.
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The travails of the Trump Organisation
In recent days a jury in Manhattan has heard E. Jean Carroll, a writer,accuseDonald Trump of raping her in the 1990s. Mr Trump, who denies the allegations, skipped the civil trial citing logistical “burdens”. But he seems unburdened enough to travel to, as he says, “inspect my great properties”. On Monday he opened a new golf course in Scotland; on Wednesday he will tour Trump Doonbeg, another resort in Ireland.
During Mr Trump’s presidency, his real-estate company paused foreign dealmaking. Since he left office it has inked just one deal, with a Saudi firm for a resort in Oman. The Trump Organisation has been preoccupied with lawsuits instead. In January it wasfined for tax fraud. And New York’s attorney-general alleges that Mr Trumpfraudulently inflated his net worthto secure bigger loans (a charge that he denies). She wants to bar him from real-estate deals in the state for five years. That would at least free up some time for more legal proceedings.
PHOTO: DAVID FREEMAN / THE ROCKY HORROR
Fifty years of “The Rocky Horror Show”
When the “Time Warp” comes on, everyone knows the moves: “it’s just a jump to the left! And then a step to the right!” “The Rocky Horror Show”, Richard O’Brien’s campy send-up of horror films, was first performed in 1973 in a theatre with just 63 seats. It has now been seen by 30m theatregoers and is one of the longest-running musicals in the world. Fifty years after its debut, on Wednesday the raucous comedy returns to London’s West End.
A film from 1975—“The Rocky Horror Picture Show”—further cemented the musical as a subversive cult classic. Audience participation is now a tradition at many showings: spectators shout out lines and dress up like the cast. And Dr Frank-N-Furter’s gender-bending universe was ahead of its time: though some numbers such as “Sweet transvestite” may seem outdated today, it presaged more modern theatrical depictions of drag such as “Kinky Boots” and “Everybody’s Talking About Jamie”. Audiences will probably be doing the Time Warp for many years to come.
Meta’sshare price soared in post-session trading after the tech firm reportedbetter-than-expectedresults for the first quarter of 2023. Revenues grew by 3% year over year, to $28.7bn—a reversal from the past three consecutive quarters of declines. The company, which owns Facebook and Instagram, has sacked thousands of workers in recent months to cut costs. Still, net income fell by 24%, to $5.7bn, partly because of investments inAI.
America’sHouse of Representatives approved a Republican plan to raisethe government’sdebt ceiling. The legislation—which also proposes budget cuts and rolling back several of President Joe Biden’s policies—is unlikely to pass the Democrat-controlled Senate. Mr Biden has urged Republicans to raise the ceiling without conditions. Failure to reach an agreement could push America into default by June this year.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, and his Chinese counterpart,Xi Jinping, spoke for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. During the phone call Mr Xi said that negotiation was the “only way out” of the war. Mr Zelensky tweeted afterwards that it was a “long and meaningful” conversation. China has yet to condemnRussiafor its aggression and the twocountrieshave maintained friendlyrelations.
While on astate visitto America Yoon Suk-yeol,South Korea’spresident, and Joe Biden issued the “Washington Declaration”, a joint statement onAmerica’snuclear deterrent. Its purpose was mutual reassurance: America agreed to beef up consultation with South Korea, while South Korea reaffirmed its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, despitegrowing callsfor it to get its own nukes.
Quarterly profits atSamsung Electronicsplunged to their lowest level in 14 years. The world’s largest memory-chip maker said the 95% year-on-year drop was due to “weak demand” and “inventory adjustments from customers”. Earlier this monththe South Korean firmannounced a “meaningful” cut in its memory-chip production, amid an industry-wide slump.
Disneysued Florida’s Republican governor,Ron DeSantis, and other state officials for “weaponising the power of government” topunish the company. Earlier a board appointed by Mr DeSantis nullified development contracts at Disney’s Orlando-area resort. The firm calls that a violation of its property rights, intended as punishment for having criticised Mr DeSantis’s“Don’t Say Gay” law.
For the first time in theVatican’shistory women will vote in the Synod of Bishops, a periodical gathering of church leaders, which will be held in October. Pope Francis requested the appointment of 70 non-bishop members of the meeting, half of which are to be women. A leader of the Women’s Ordination Conference, an activist group, called the decision “a significant crack in thestained-glass ceiling”.
Fact of the day:70%, the proportion of Americans who do not want Joe Biden to run for re-election.Read the full story.
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America’s growth stays strong, for now
Before 2023 began many forecasters thought the American economy would enter a recession at the start of the year. It has faredquite a bit betterthan that. GDP figures for the first quarter, released on Thursday, are now expected to show growth at an annual pace of about 2%. That is largely because of a tight labour market, which has pushed up wages and helped to sustain consumption.
Continued predictions of recession may sound too gloomy given America’s better-than-expected performance to date. But it will struggle to avoid a sharp slowdown. Turmoil in the banking sector threatens the wider economy. The labour market is starting to weaken, with more people collecting unemployment insurance. Meanwhile, inflation is still high, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightmonetary policy. The first quarter may be the high-water mark for American growth this year.
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Meloni and Sunak on common ground
Italy’s prime minister,Giorgia Meloni, comes to London on Thursday to meet her British counterpart,Rishi Sunak. Co-operation between their countries has been blossoming. Last December, Britain and Italy joined Japan in a project to develop next-generation fighter aircraft. In February, the two countries signed Britain’s first trade agreement with an EU state since Brexit.
Ms Meloni, a populist, and Mr Sunak, who styles himself as more of a technocrat, in fact, haveplenty in common. Each is tackling seaborne irregular migration (even if the roughly 5,000migrants crossing the Channelto Britain this year are dwarfed by the almost 37,000 who havelanded in Italy). Both leaders came into office last October. Both are conservatives, though Ms Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, has a more radical tradition with roots in neo-fascism—leading to a colder shoulder from French and German counterparts compared with the reception of her moderate predecessor, Mario Draghi. She could do with a friend in London.
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America's dead banks walking
On Monday First Republic Bank revealed that it had lost more than $100bn of its deposits in the first quarter. After thecollapse of Silicon Valley Bankin March, well-heeled customers, who held balances too large to be insured by regulators, had fled the mid-sized American bank. With depositors gone its alternatives are recapitalisation by investors or the government. But investors are fleeing too, with the bank’s share price plunging by 50% on Tuesday. The firm is reported to be in talks with regulators, who have repeatedly promised deposits in the banking system are safe.
How many more banks are at risk? One study found that if half of uninsured depositors—the type that felled SVB and may soon fell First Republic—pulled their money out, some 190 American banks, with combined assets of $300bn, would be left with negative equity capital. If this figure included First Republic it suggests any other lurking zombies would be much smaller. Still, another scare hardly seems out of the question.
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Missouri goes after adult gender medicine
In the name of protecting children, more than a dozen American states restrict access togender medicine for minors. But few have sought to ban such treatments for adults. Grown-ups should, the argument goes, be free to do with their bodies what they wish. Yet if Missouri has its way, treatment will be severely restricted for adults too. An emergency law, due to take effect on Thursday, would have banned doctors from providing puberty blockers, hormone therapy and surgery to new patients before high bars are met. These include evidence of three consecutive years of “medically documented” gender dysphoria, hours of therapy, resolution of any mental-health conditions, and screening for autism and “social-media addiction”. On Wednesday, however, a judge put the new regime on pause while a legal challenge to it plays out.
The state’s Republican attorney-general, Andrew Bailey, says that such measures will help those struggling with their gender identity “make good decisions”. But the litigation will be a test case for other states. Conservative politicians and advocates of trans rights elsewhere will be watching closely.
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Last Late, Late Show
On Thursday James Corden will sit under Studio 56’s neon purple lights for the last time. After eight years of hosting “The Late Late Show” in Los Angeles, theBritish comedianis returning to London to spend more time with his family.
He won’t be short of things to do. Mr Corden has continued to act in films and television shows during his tenure; he has said he hopes to return to theatre, too. Other talk-show hosts, such as David Letterman andJon Stewart, landed deals with streaming services after stepping away from their duties.
But CBS, the network which airs the programme, will feel Mr Corden’s absence. Clips of his show are watched online by hundreds of millions of people. (Its YouTube channel has 28.3m subscribers; by comparison, the rival “The Daily Show” has 10.4m.) According to Deadline, an entertainment website, the lights will go off on the “Late Late Show” franchise when Mr Corden, its fourth host, departs. Talk about being irreplaceable.
The Rapid Support Forces, a militia warring withSudan’sruling military junta, announced a 72-hour ceasefire to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr. It said the truce would “open humanitarian corridors to evacuate citizens”. There was no immediate response from the army. Several attempts at a ceasefire have failed sincefighting eruptedon April 15th. Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, was bombed and shelled overnight, before the ceasefire was announced.
Dominic Raabresigned as Britain’s deputy prime minister and justice secretary after the release of a bullying probe. Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, ordered the inquiry in November aftercivil servantscomplained about Mr Raab’s intimidating behaviour towards subordinates. In his resignation letter, Mr Raab said that the report created a “dangerous precedent” by setting a “low” bar for bullying.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, announced it would merge its two AI labs,DeepMindandGoogle Brain. Google acquired DeepMind—famous for developing an AI that beat the world’s Go champion in 2016—nine years ago but had allowed it toremain autonomous. It isfalling behindin the race todevelop generative AI: its chatbot, Bard, failed to impress when itlaunchedone month ago.
A RussianSu-34 warplaneaccidentally bombed the Russian city ofBelgorod, near the border with Ukraine, injuring two people and damaging several buildings. The country’s ministry of defence said it would investigate the “emergency release of anair ordnance”.
Rakuten Bank, Japan’s largest internet lender by customer numbers, raised around ¥83.3bn ($622m) in Tokyo’s biggestIPOsince 2018. The bank’s share price rose by 33%. U Power, a China-basedelectric-vehiclestartup, also had a bumper IPO in America. The firm’s shares soared by 620% during its debut, the biggest such rise among companies to list there this year.
Gabriel Boric,Chile’spresident, announced plans to nationalise the country’slithiumindustry in order to boost its economy and protect its environment. Mr Boric said that future contracts for lithium exploration and extraction would be issued as public-private partnerships with state control. Chile has the world’s largestlithiumreserves and is the second-biggest producer of the metal, which is essential for electric-vehicle batteries.
Twenty countries in theEU, led by Slovenia, are lobbying for more regulation to prevent impure honey being sold in the bloc. Exporters, mostly from China, have been undercutting European beekeepers by selling cheaper products mixed with sugar syrup and water—a practice one official calls “honey laundering”. The group wants tighter rules around labelling and more stringent checks on imports.
Fact of the day:3.9%, the chance that AI experts assign to the technology causing an existential catastrophe (where fewer than 5,000 humans survive) by 2100.Read the full story.
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Horror and hope in Yemen
This weekend is the Eid al-Fitr holiday which marks the end of Ramadan. Festivities in Yemen will be muted by a stampede in Sana’a, the capital, on Wednesday: at least 78 people were killed in a crush to collect donations.
Before the tragedy, however, the country had seemed somewhat hopeful.Almost 900 former prisonerswill celebrate Eid at home, having been freed as part of a detainee swap between the Houthis, a Shia militia that controls much of the country, and their Saudi-led foes. The exchange suggests both sides want to end their eight-year war.
After the holiday, negotiators will try to hash out a deal. The Houthis want the Saudi-backed government of Yemen to pay the salaries of civil servants in areas they control, among other demands. The Saudis, eager to exit the war, are willing to make concessions. But sadly even the departure of the Saudis would not end a longer conflict over how to share power in the fractious state.
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The West assesses damage from the Pentagon leaks
On Friday Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, must confront his country’s discomfited allies for the first time since top-secret Pentagon documents wereleakedon social media. The “Ramstein group”, named for the American air-force base in Germany where they are meeting, includes officials from the 50-odd countries that arm Ukraine. In private they will want reassurances that America is acting to prevent future breaches. In public they will signal determination not to let the fiasco divert them from supporting Ukraine.
They would do well to carry a copy of one leaked page: a slide marked NOFORN (Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals) summarising Ukraine’s acute shortage of air-defence missiles. Drawn up in February, it predicted that Ukraine would run out of medium-range air-defence missiles in May. That could allow Russia to use its powerful air force to foil Ukraine’s looming counter-attack. Ukraine’s backers will argue that now is the time to scour Western armouries for precious missiles—and to start giving Ukraine advanced fighter jets.
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P&G is pinched and gloomy
Procter & Gamble, one of the world’s biggest consumer-goods companies, reports its earnings on Friday. The figures will give a sign of how companies are navigating stubborn inflation and rising interest rates. Higher prices annoy consumers, but for some businesses steady inflation can be a quiet blessing: when matched with falling input costs, it can yield fatter profits on lower volumes.
P&G, which makes Pampers diapers, Tide laundry detergent, Gillette razors and other premium home brands has been struggling with higher outlays and freight costs. P&G also had a disappointing previous quarter, as inflation-driven price increases failed to offset declining volumes.Customers, feeling the pinch, may have been “trading down” to discount brands. Similar results this time will send an ominous signal about consumer confidence. Combined with troubling signs from the property market, they may, yet again, suggest a looming recession.
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The sorry state of the climate
On Friday the World Meteorological Organisation will publish the “State of the Global Climate” for 2022, one of its annual assessments of the impacts of global warming. The contents—unsurprisingly—will not be positive. Provisional estimates from the WMO have already suggested that the past eight years were the warmest on record for the globe as a whole. This was confirmed by Copernicus, the EU’s Earth-observation programme, in its own analysis, first published in January.
Within those eight years 2022 itself was among the coolest, with temperatures partially suppressed by La Niña, aglobal weather pattern. Even so, 2022 saw record-breaking heat across America, Asia and Europe. Catastrophic flooding in Pakistan affected some 33m people; a series of tropical storms battered countries in south-east Africa. All theseextreme weather events, which impacted millions of people and cost billions of dollars, were worsened, to some degree, by climate change. And further warming is nowinevitable, meaning that even more lives and money will be lost in the years to come.
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Everything But the Girl offer softness and spikes
It’s not like Tracey Thorn and Ben Watt have been idle in the 24 years since “Temperamental”, their last album as the English musical duo Everything But the Girl. Both have made several successful solo records, and Ms Thorn has written four acclaimed books. They got married—their accountant’s idea, Mr Watt claims—and raised three children together. Still, there’s something right about their recording as a pair again, the result of which is released on Friday.
“Fuse”, Everything But the Girl’s 11th album, is stark and yet soft. Ms Thorn’s voice is warm and comforting while Mr Watt’s accompaniments, usually electronic, are imaginative without being obtrusive. The mood is encapsulated in “Lost”, a track about the death of Ms Thorn’s mother, which opens: “I lost my mind today.” The raw pain of the lyric is contrasted with a song as pretty as a narcissus. Adventurous yet familiar, “Fuse” is the rare comeback album that might be better than its predecessors.