China refused to endorse a statement condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at a meeting of G20 finance ministers. Instead India, the group’s current president, released a summary document saying “most” members believed the war was causing “immense human suffering”. Russia, naturally, was the other holdout. China is positioning itself as a potential peacemaker in the war, although it implicitly supports the Kremlin.

At least 50 people died when a boat carrying about 150 migrants sank off of Italy’s southern coast. A baby was among the dead. Some 105,000 people tried to claim asylum in Italy in 2022; many attempt to reach the country by crossing the Mediterranean Sea in flimsy vessels from north Africa. Italy’s anti-immigration prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, expressed “deep sorrow” for the victims.

Thales, a big French defence contractor, announced plans to hire 12,000 new staff this year. The chief executive, Patrice Caine, said in an interview that demand for many of its products was strong. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the share prices of several defence companies have surged; President Emmanuel Macron recently pledged to increase French defence spending by a third.

Some 13,000 people protested in Berlin against Germany’s military support of Ukraine. The “Uprising for Peace”, whose organisers included a prominent politician from the hard-left Die Linke party, also called for negotiations with Russia. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, has provided generous aid to Ukraine since he proclaimed a Zeitenwende, or “turning in time”, immediately after Russia’s invasion last year.

Jordan is hosting a meeting between Israeli and Palestinian security officials in an attempt to stop a recent surge in violence between the two sides. Fighting has taken the lives of about 60 Palestinians and ten Israelis since the beginning of the year. Representatives from other countries in the region are attending, as well as Brett McGurk, adviser on the Middle East to President Joe Biden.

Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, said that discussions between Britain and the European Union about reforming Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements were “inching towards a conclusion”. Speculation is rife that a deal over one of the most vexed issues of Britain’s divorce from the bloc could come early next week. MPs from Britain’s ruling Conservative party were ordered to attend Parliament on Monday.

Newspapers across America, including USA Today and the Washington Post, dropped the long-running Dilbert cartoon strip, after its creator, Scott Adams, called black Americans a “hate group”. Mr Adams was responding on his YouTube channel to a poll that purported to show that around a quarter of black Americans disagreed with the statement “It’s OK to be white.” The cartoons, which lambast corporate life, have run since 1989.

Word of the week: sakoku, Japanese for “closed country”, used to describe the Tokugawa period, when Japan supposedly cut itself off from the world. Read the full story.


PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Scholz seeks closer ties in India

Expect well-tempered bonhomie as Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, meets Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, in Delhi, the capital on Sunday, before heading south to the country’s start-up hub of Bengaluru. Mr Scholz may seek Mr Modi’s support for Western efforts to isolate Russia—probably to little avail. But discussions on economic co-operation may prove more fruitful. The chancellor will bring a group of German CEOs whose primary interest is expanding access to India’s growing market.

Germany, which is already India’s biggest European trading partner and an important investor in the country, is keen to reduce its economic dependence on China. The leaders are likely to discuss the potential for a free-trade agreement with the EU. There is also scope for co-operation on climate-change mitigation and investment in renewable energy. Thornier issues in India, including assaults on press freedom and human rights, have been missing from announcements leading up to the visit. Like other Western countries, Germany prefers to focus on India’s bright side.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

The world is deeply divided on Ukraine

After a year of war, Western leaders are patting themselves on the back for remaining united behind Ukraine. But the mood elsewhere is more ambivalent. Countries in Africa, Asia and South America are less preoccupied with a Ukrainian victory and more concerned with the impact of war on their economies.

A new report from the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, lays bare these divisions. Pluralities in China (42%), Turkey (48%) and India (54%) say that the war needs to stop as soon as possible, even if that means Ukraine ceding territory to Russia. A whopping 63% of Indian respondents see Russia as having become “much or somewhat stronger” because of the war. Thus, whereas the conflict might have sparked a revival of the alliance between America and Europe, the authors argue that “the consolidation of the West is taking place in an increasingly divided post-Western world”. This, they conclude “may end up being the biggest geopolitical turning point revealed by the war”.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

How the Homo sapiens invaded Europe

Successful invaders usually have superior weapons, and few invaders have been more successful than Homo sapiens. Those who suffered as a result of sapiens’ expansion into Europe included Homo neanderthalensis. Both species had hand-hurled spears when they first met. But according to a paper in Science Advances by Laure Metz, of Aix-Marseille University, European sapiens also carried bows and arrows, a better hunting and fighting technology, from the get-go. Previously, these were known only from the more recent past.

Dr Metz has been studying finds from Grotte Mandrin in the Rhône valley, a site where strata containing remains of sapiens go back 54,000 years, the oldest yet discovered in Europe. Many of the numerous stone artefacts found at this site were probably weapon tips. She and her colleagues compared the sizes of these, and the pattern of impact-damage on them, with those of others, ancient and modern. They conclude that many are, indeed, arrowheads rather than spear-points. The poor Neanderthals didn’t stand a chance.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Australia gets ready for Bazball

Test cricket’s greatest spectacle, the biannual Ashes series between England and Australia, is less than four months away. As a pointer to the outcome, both teams are currently negotiating tricky away assignments, with very different results. Australia are struggling against India. They lost the first two Tests; the third starts on Wednesday but a drawn series is the best that Australia can now hope for. Meanwhile England, and in particular Harry Brook, their new superstar batter, have been putting New Zealand, the World Test Champions, to the sword.

Brendon McCullum, himself a New Zealander, has transformed England’s team since he was appointed head coach in May 2022. It is not just their results—though they have won ten out of 11 tests under Mr McCullum—but the calculated aggression of their batting that might unnerve the Aussies. The tactic has been nicknamed “Bazball” in honour of the coach. Twenty years ago, Steve Waugh’s Australian team redefined Test cricket by aiming to score at four runs an over, a breathtakingly high rate. This England team is managing to go even faster.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Weekend profile: Maia Sandu, the gutsy Moldovan president uncowed by Putin

Ever since Russia invaded its neighbour, tiny Moldova has worried it might be next. Like Ukraine it was once a Soviet republic and is partly Russian-speaking; Russian soldiers occupy Transnistria, a breakaway statelet along its eastern border with Ukraine. But if Vladimir Putin thinks Moldova will be intimidated, he has not reckoned with its president, Maia Sandu, a pocket-sized pro-European who has spent her career facing down powerful, corrupt opponents.

The 50-year-old Ms Sandu was born in a small village where her father managed a pig farm. After university she worked for the economics ministry, part of a generation of modernising young technocrats, then joined the World Bank. Upon entering politics she became education minister, and won public acclaim for cleaning up a corrupt school-exam system that had obliged pupils to pay bribes.

In 2015 protests brought down the government after $1bn was embezzled from the central bank in a Russian-linked money-laundering scheme. Ms Sandu was nominated for the prime ministership, but turned it down when parties refused to fire crooked officials. She set up the Party of Action and Solidarity and ran for president, but was beaten by Igor Dodon, the pro-Russian leader of the Socialist Party. Ms Sandu then waged quixotic electoral campaigns against the Socialists and parties controlled by Moldova’s oligarchs. While she and her volunteers operated out of a deteriorating 19th-century villa, oligarchs ran their parties out of office towers where TV monitors carried the broadcasts of the propaganda stations they owned.

Everything changed in 2019, when Mr Dodon cut a deal (with Russian and American approval) to make Ms Sandu prime minister. Political scheming soon brought down Ms Sandu’s government, but in 2020 she beat Mr Dodon in the presidential race. She has since appointed two pro-EU, anti-corruption prime ministers.

Mr Putin has tried to cow her by cutting gas deliveries and sowing disinformation. On Thursday Russia alleged that Ukraine was planning a false-flag provocation in Transnistria to justify invading it. Ms Sandu promptly rebutted that and reiterated her defiance of Russian pressure. There would be no “puppet government enslaved to the interests of the Kremlin” in Chisinau, Moldova’s capital, she said. She seems to be getting what she wants: last June the EU granted Moldova candidate status.

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President Vladimir Putin said Russia would bolster its nuclear forces in a speech on “Defender of the Fatherland Day”, a public holiday. According to Mr Putin Russia will deploy the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, nicknamed “Satan 2”. On Tuesday Mr Putin withdrew from New START, Russia’s last nuclear-reduction treaty with America. Meanwhile Ukraine said it had held off Russian incursions across the frontline ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion on Friday.

The Israeli army launched air strikes on Gaza in retaliation for the firing of six rockets towards Israel by Palestinian militants. On Wednesday, Israeli forces had killed 11 Palestinians and injured scores more in a daytime raid in the West Bank. Five of the rockets were shot down by Israel’s air defences. Israel and Palestine have experienced an uptick in violence this year.

President Joe Biden nominated Ajay Banga, a former chief executive of Mastercard, as president of the World Bank. David Malpass, the previous head, resigned last week, a year before his term was set to expire, amid concerns that he did not take climate change seriously. The bank’s largest shareholders, including America, are seeking to expand its operations to focus on combating global warming.

Brazil announced that it would temporarily halt exports of beef to China after detecting a case of mad cow disease in the northern state of Pará. Brazil, which is the world’s largest beef exporter, previously suspended exports to China for more than three months in 2021 because of an outbreak. The suspension will hurt Brazilian food producers as China is their largest export market.

Police in Northern Ireland suspect that the gunmen who critically injured an off-duty officer were members of the New IRA, a militant group. John Caldwell, a police detective, was shot repeatedly by two men in the town of Omagh on Wednesday. Tensions have been rising as Rishi Sunak, Britain’s prime minister, pushes to reform Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trade arrangements with the European Union.

The European Commission ordered all staff to remove TikTok, the Chinese-owned social-media app, from their work phones citing concerns over data security. Employees will also have to delete TikTok from their personal phones if they have work-related apps installed. Western governments worry that TikTok shares the data it gathers from users with Chinese authorities; America banned the app on government phones.

Britain’s government confirmed it will establish an independent regulator to oversee English football. The proposed regulator’s tasks will include ensuring a fairer distribution of revenues between clubs and preventing them from joining breakaway competitions, such as the European Super League. More details will be revealed in the government’s white paper on football governance, set to be released on Thursday.

Fact of the day: 40%, the percentage of the Philippines’ electrical grid owned by Chinese firms. Read the full story.


PHOTO: DPA

The euro zone’s volatile inflation data

Tech problems are especially embarrassing when everyone is watching. As the world awaited the release of the euro zone’s January inflation figures on February 1st, Eurostat, the EU’s statistics bureau, announced that Germany’s contribution was missing because of a technical problem that had forced the agency merely to estimate the country’s figure. On Thursday the euro area’s price data was updated and released.

Inflation came in slightly higher than the estimate, at 8.6% compared to 8.5%. Germany published its full January figures on Wednesday. They show consumer prices rising by 9.2% year-on-year, or 0.5% on the previous month (not seasonally adjusted). The energy data show why. As a one-off government rebate on utility bills ran out, energy prices increased by 8.3% between December and January. Energy costs have come down in wholesale markets, but it is not clear if or when that decline will be passed on to consumers. Europe’s inflation data over the coming months may be volatile, IT problems or not.

PHOTO: DAVE SIMONDS

The Fed’s magical disappearing act

When the Federal Reserve publishes new balance-sheet figures on Thursday, they will probably show another step downwards. Since mid-2022 the Fed has shrunk its assets from $9trn to $8.4trn. This carefully managed decline is known as quantitative tightening (QT), the reverse of the quantitative easing (QE)—purchases of bonds on a massive scale—used by the Fed to support the economy during downturns.

The Fed wants QT to play out quietly. It plans to shrink its balance-sheet by about $2.5trn in total by mid-2024 in order to bring it closer to its pre-covid size. But the Fed’s monetary operations may soon get trickier. Many investors think that it will shift from raising interest rates to cutting them later this year as economic growth falters. That could create a conflict in which the Fed is cutting rates (a form of easing) at the same time as shrinking its assets (a form of tightening). Markets would go from QE to QT to Q-confusion.

PHOTO: AP

Alibaba looks to the future

China’s reopening after three years of zero-covid measures is great news for consumer-tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent. The attempt by the country’s president, Xi Jinping, to shut out the pandemic depressed consumption, and these companies suffered. The extent to which they braced the pain became clearer on Thursday when Alibaba reported its final quarterly earnings of 2022.

The results were better than expected. Revenue grew 2% year-on-year when many analysts had predicted a decline; its net income of 46.8bn yuan ($6.8bn) was also above expectations. The company’s figures were partly buoyed by ruthless cost-cutting measures as it shed nearly 20,000 jobs in 2022. Still, investors will hope the worst is nearly over. Some believe that opening up will result in a consumption boom, boosting sales on Alibaba’s platforms of discretionary goods such as clothing and cosmetics. Others hope Mr Xi’s crackdown on big tech is over.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

BAE and the race to arm Ukraine

Britain’s FTSE 100 share index has been on a tear of late, but few of its companies have done as well as BAE Systems. The share price of Europe’s biggest defence contractor has risen by more than 50% over the past year. And its financial results for 2022, released on Thursday, showed that revenues rose 8.9% year-on-year. As a manufacturer of everything from frigates and fighter jets to electronic-warfare systems, it has done very well out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A BAE product, the 155mm howitzer shell, is at the heart of the West’s struggle to keep Ukraine’s arsenal stocked. Having exhausted their Soviet-era ammunition, Ukraine’s army increasingly relies on NATO countries for such shells. Yet America and Europe combined currently make enough in a year only to maintain a three-month barrage. That is a worry as Ukraine faces the prospect of a new Russian offensive. BAE’s earnings will interest investors. But of more general concern is how fast it can ramp up production.

PHOTO: VIVIAN YOON

A confessional K-pop podcast

Growing up, Vivian Yoon hid a secret behind her baggy jeans and emo records. The Korean-American was raised in Los Angeles’s K-town, the centre of its Korean diaspora. But one thing she would never reveal: she loved K-pop.

For more than a decade now, K-pop has been globally popular and Ms Yoon (pictured) is ready to confess. A writer and actor, her new podcast, “K-pop Dreaming”, recounts the rise of K-pop and Korean-Americans’ contribution to it. The first two episodes, released on Thursday, suggest that both the music and the diaspora have been explored better elsewhere. But then the podcast’s real subject is Ms Yoon herself. Her attempts to figure out how her Korean heritage and K-Town upbringing have shaped her life are the podcast’s most compelling elements, and perhaps its most divisive. Listeners charmed by Ms Yoon’s openness will enjoy her frequent autobiographical recollections. For others, her confessional style may be a distraction from her musical and sociological themes.

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President Joe Biden arrived in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, for a surprise meeting with his counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. The trip is Mr Biden’s first to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began almost a year ago. Mr Biden said he would support Ukraine’s war effort “for as long as it takes” and promised a new delivery of military equipment including Javelin anti-tank missiles and radars. He will travel on to Poland to meet NATO leaders from the alliance’s eastern flank.

Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, said China is “considering providing lethal material support” to Russia in Ukraine. In a meeting at the Munich Security Conference, an annual diplomatic event, Mr Blinken warned Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, that any such support would have “serious consequences”. China’s foreign ministry denied the claim and said it would not accept “finger-pointing” from America. Mr Blinken also rebuked China for sending a suspected spy balloon into American airspace. Mr Wang dismissed America’s reaction as a “political farce”.

North Korea fired two short-range missiles off its east coast, just two days after it launched an intercontinental missile towards Japan. The flurry of launches prompted Kishida Fumio, Japan’s prime minister, to request an emergency meeting of the UN’s Security Council. On Sunday America held joint air drills with Japan and South Korea. North Korean officials said such exercises are “destroying the stability of the region”.

Hong Kong announced plans to allow retail investors to trade in the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether. Financiers will now be able to trade cryptocurrencies on licensed exchanges; previously, they were forced to rely on unlicensed platforms. The changes will bring Hong Kong in line with its competitor Singapore, which has permitted retail cryptocurrency trading for years.

Turkey wound down its rescue operations on Sunday, nearly a fortnight after a devastating earthquake struck the country’s south-eastern provinces and neighbouring Syria. The death toll has passed 46,000, though many people are still missing. Some 26m people need aid, according to the World Health Organisation. America promised $100m more in aid, in addition to the $85m it has already pledged.

Meta announced plans to launch a subscription service that will allow users of Facebook and Instagram to verify their accounts. For $12-$15 a month, users on the social-media platforms will receive a “blue badge” and additional protection against impersonation. The service is part of a series of proposed features that will “empower creators to be way more productive and creative”, according to Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s boss.

A German-language film set during the first world war was a surprise winner at Britain’s biggest film awards, the BAFTAs. “All Quiet on the Western Front” beat more favoured films to the best picture gong and won six other awards, including the best director for Edward Berger. In one of his acceptance speeches, Mr Berger mentioned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “There are no heroes in any war,” he said.

Fact of the day: $48bn. The value of the weapons and aid that America has sent to Ukraine under President Joe Biden. Read the full story.


PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

POTUS in Kyiv

As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, President Joe Biden made a surprise trip to Kyiv, the capital, on Monday, his first trip since the war began. He was scheduled to travel to Poland, keeping a safe distance from Ukraine’s border. But the opportunity to visit the war-torn country proved too symbolic to resist—many Western leaders (and Mr Biden’s wife) have already made the trip.

Mr Biden will pledge continued support to Ukraine, while fending off calls to release American-made jets. In Poland the president will meet his counterpart, Andrzej Duda, and the leaders of eight other eastern members of NATO. Mr Biden will encourage them to keep shuttling weapons to Ukraine. In turn, they will push for an increased American presence in the region. Last year America established its first army base on NATO’s eastern flank in Poland. But with the threat of Russia looming, NATO’s frontline states will seek more assurances.

PHOTO: ALAMY

Russia’s resilient economy

When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, many predicted disaster for its economy. The West introduced sanctions, and the rouble collapsed. But Russia’s economy has proved surprisingly resilient. GDP only fell 2.2% in 2022, compared with early predictions of a 10% contraction. The IMF now forecasts growth of 0.3% for 2023.

Russia’s central bank, which releases its latest monetary-policy report on Monday, continues to exude calm. Soon after the outbreak of the war it increased interest rates from 9.5% to 20%, signalling that it was serious about tackling inflation and stemming a bank run. It gradually brought down the rate and has kept it at 7.5% since September, saying inflation is elevated, but manageable.

Recent Western sanctions on Russian oil have proved underwhelming, though this month’s extension of the measures to include refined products like diesel will be harder to dodge. Still, the damage will not persuade Russia to halt the war.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Can Air India fly high again?

Air India began this year in inglorious fashion. Many Indians were outraged when it emerged that a drunk man allegedly urinated on a fellow business-class passenger. To some, the episode summed up the decline of the flag carrier, once a source of national pride. Tata, the conglomerate which retook the airline from the government last year, is now hoping to return the company to its former glory. It is betting on expansion. Last week it placed a record order: 470 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus, two planemakers, for $70-80bn.

There is plenty of scope for growth. India’s aviation market is close to fully recovering from the pandemic and is expected to be the third-biggest in the world within a decade, after America and China. But competition will also be tough. Air India is India’s third-biggest airline, with a market share of less than 10% in 2022, and is generating losses. So too is SpiceJet, another big airline, which reports results this week. Meanwhile, IndiGo, an industry behemoth with more than half the domestic market, is profitable and awaiting the delivery of 500 more aircraft.

PHOTO: AFP

European consumers look more confident

On Monday fresh consumer-confidence figures buoyed hopes that the euro zone will avoid a recession. An index released by the European Commission showed a reading of -19 in February, compared with -20.7 in January. A result below zero still indicates overall pessimism, but the score is the index’s highest in a year.

Energy prices have tumbled thanks to a warm winter and plentiful gas storage, and stimulus from the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund has propped up member states’ economies. The European Commission has also raised its outlook for GDP growth in 2023 to 0.9% from 0.3% in its November forecast. All EU countries except Sweden are expected to grow.

Yet there are still headwinds. Inflation is easing but remains high. The war in Ukraine is showing no sign of ending soon. And next winter energy prices could shoot up again as China rapidly recovers from its zero-covid regime, increasing the demand for gas.

PHOTO: PICTURE ALLIANCE

Bernie Sanders warns of the ills of capitalism, again

The left-wing senator from Vermont is the longest-serving independent in US congressional history. But Bernie Sanders’s dedication to his usual cause is undimmed in his fourth book. “It’s OK to Be Angry About Capitalism”, released this week, takes aim at the concentration of riches in the hands of a few. Mr Sanders offers his ideas to cure America’s economic and political systems of their ills. Chief among them are increasing tax on corporations and reforming campaign-finance rules to free political parties from big donors.

Mr Sanders’s message may not be new, but by unpacking problems from wealth inequality to health-care access he taps into some of the frustrations felt by working Americans who struggle to make ends meet. An “uber-capitalist” system, he argues, is what drove disaffected, working-class Democratic voters to support Donald Trump and the Republicans. Mr Sanders is often teased for his grouchy demeanour. His book shows why he sees few reasons to be cheery.

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