HMBR and Co.

On Monday India’s central bankers begin a three-day monetary-policy meeting at which they are expected to announce a small increase in interest rates. That will probably be the final rise in the current tightening cycle. The Reserve Bank of India is softening its stance because price rises are slowing. In December annual inflation fell for the third consecutive month, to 5.7%, its lowest level in more than a year. In last week’s budget the government announced plans to rein in spending, which should also help keep prices down.

But as one fire fizzles, another looms. Several of India’s largest banks are exposed to the Adani Group, the giant conglomerate that has been rocked by allegations of fraud. The RBI insists the “banking sector remains resilient and stable”. Commercial banks have also played down any concerns. But should the fallout worsen, the RBI, which has a mandate for maintaining financial stability, may be back firefighting.

Margrethe Vestager’s early career was so impressive that it inspired “Borgen”, a hit television show about Danish politics. Now, as the competition boss of the European Commission, Ms Vestager wields one of the EU’s sharpest economic swords: fierce competition rules and their enforcement.

Those weapons curb corporate power and egregious state support used to prop up national champions. But many EU governments, in particular the French, would like to blunt Ms Vestager’s sword. They argue that the American government’s ambitious (and expensive) plans to build up green manufacturing require Europe to respond in kind: with large subsidies. No doubt to Ms Vestager’s dismay, the EU’s new green industrial strategy weakens Europe's competition rules and allows governments to spend more lavishly.

On Monday Ms Vestager will speak to America’s treasury secretary, Janet Yellen—who oversees the tax credits that form the backbone of America’s ambitions—in an attempt to limit the transatlantic fallout over subsidies. Not quite the stuff of noirish Scandinavian drama, but important for Europe’s economic future.

When preparing a setlist, musicians must give the crowd fresh material as well as old classics. António Guterres, the UN’s secretary-general, faces a similar challenge when he outlines his priorities for 2023 before the General Assembly on Monday.

Mr Guterres is fond of grim proclamations: in recent months he has warned of “nuclear annihilation” and “climate hell”. Expect to hear such refrains again as he warns of the risks posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, spiralling inflation and rising temperatures.

But he should also offer something new. Watch out for mention of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, 17 targets for 2030 that cover everything from peace to renewable energy. Progress is assessed every four years: the next stocktake is scheduled for September. Mr Guterres will probably warn governments to pick up the tempo. Otherwise he will be forced to carry on singing the same tune.

Gay marriage was legalised in Britain in 2014. But no religious organisation can be compelled to carry out same-sex weddings. When the Church of England’s governing body, the general synod, convenes on Monday for a four-day session, the issue will be at the top of the agenda. In January the church said it planned to allow clergy to bless same-sex unions but would continue to ban gay couples from marrying in its churches. When the synod debates the proposal this week, progressives may push for that ban to be lifted.

The church’s membership seems to be coming around to the idea. Some 55%, and almost three-quarters of those under 50, support same-sex marriage, up from 38% in 2013. But Anglicans elsewhere in the world are less liberal. In August 2022 the Global South Fellowship of Anglican Churches, which represents around 75% of Anglicans worldwide, reaffirmed its view that homosexuality is “incompatible with scripture.” The Church of England risks destabilising the Anglican Communion entirely.

Chinese cinephiles will line up this week for the country’s first showings of “Wakanda Forever”, Disney’s Oscar-nominated follow-up to “Black Panther”. The studio’s Marvel superhero flicks have a big following in China. “Wakanda” is especially eagerly awaited, as it is the first Marvel movie to be granted a release in China since 2019.

No one is sure why China banned the previous lot. The content may be one reason. In 2021 “The Eternals” introduced Marvel’s first gay superhero. “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”, also released in 2021, depicted Asian culture in ways that may have triggered China’s censors. Neither was shown in China.

A bigger motive may have been to protect domestic moviemakers. Patriotic hits like “The Battle at Lake Changjin” do better when Disney is shut out. No reason was given for Marvel's sudden return. But a population that has become restless with covid clampdowns needs cheering up. Not bread and circuses, but bread and cinema.

After the crime comes the cover-up. The investigation of the massive explosion at Beirut’s port in 2020, which killed 218 people, was stalled for more than a year by legal challenges. Tarek Bitar, the judge overseeing it, had hoped to resume interrogating officials on Monday. Instead he has been charged with judicial misconduct by Lebanon’s top prosecutor—one of the officials whom Mr Bitar had sought to question.

The judicial feud is yet another sign of Lebanon’s dysfunction. It has not had a president since October, and parliament has failed 11 times to elect a new one. Last year the caretaker cabinet went six months without meeting. More than three years into a financial crisis, Lebanon’s currency has lost 97% of its value. Annual inflation was 171% in 2022. Bailout talks with the IMF are stalled. Lebanon’s corrupt ruling class cannot agree on anything, it seems, except their collective taste for impunity.

Greek Cypriots hold a presidential election on Sunday. The front-runner is Nikos Christodoulides, who resigned last month as foreign minister because rivals in the ruling party were angry about his presidential ambitions. Mr Christodoulides, now an independent backed by left-of-centre parties, is unlikely to get more than 50% of the vote (as are the other 13 candidates). But he should win a run-off on February 12th. Turkish Cypriots living in the north of the divided island will not participate.

One of Mr Christodoulides’s main challenges will be to manage the complex energy politics of the eastern Mediterranean. Several international companies plan to start exploiting natural gas from the Cypriot seabed. Israel and Egypt are already exploring their own such deposits, while Turkey has failed to make any finds so far. Cyprus could sell gas to Egypt, some of which could be re-exported to Turkey. A costly pipeline project to carry gas between Crete, Greece and Italy is also being discussed. Mr Christodoulides’s priority will be to ensure that Cyprus’s long-awaited gas bonanza actually happens.

On Sunday American music’s great and good slap each others’ backs and dole out their annual awards. The sheer number of categories, at 91, speaks to the self-importance of the Recording Academy, which puts on the Grammys. That clubby self-regard has mired the awards show in controversy, prompting accusations of racism for snubs of black singers, and criticism for opaque voting procedures.

This year, at least, the nominations reflect pop culture. Black artists are present in all the major categories and among the favourites; exciting young bands such as Idles, Turnstile and Wet Leg have nominations; and there is the chance for both Taylor Swift and Beyoncé to win the major awards that have, surprisingly, been denied them so far: song of the year for Ms Swift, and album of the year for Beyoncé. Still, all awards ceremonies end in one certainty: that come the morning after, someone, somewhere will be up in arms about the injustice of it all.

Everyone knows the frustration of arguing with a stubborn opponent. New research suggests that those on opposite sides of the political spectrum do not merely fail to see eye to eye; their brains behave differently in ways that are stark enough to be detectable with fairly crude instruments. Two groups of researchers scanned the brains of left- and right-wingers as they were shown words and news clips. Using changes in blood flow as a proxy for neural activity, both found that the subjects’ brains responded in similar ways to neutral material, but diverged when presented with content about divisive topics like immigration.

Measuring blood flow using magnetic-resonance imaging, Daantje de Bruin and Oriel FeldmanHall, of Brown University in Rhode Island, recorded different patterns of activity in parts of the brain that handle emotions and cognition. Noa Katabi and Yaara Yeshurun, of Tel Aviv University, saw differences in the areas that deal with hearing, vision and movement. Big differences of opinion show up as big differences in brain activity.