At least 280 people were killed and more than 900 were injured after trains collided in Odisha, a state in eastern India. It is India’s most deadly rail crash this century. Some local reports said a passenger train had collided with a stationary freight train—and that carriages from the freight train then hit a separate passenger train. The death toll is expected to rise.

Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, said he was “deeply concerned” that China was unwilling to engage on “mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries”. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a security summit in Singapore, Mr Austin also said America would not stand for “coercion and bullying” of its allies by China. Li Shangfu, China’s defence minister, declined an invitation for talks with Mr Austin at the gathering.

America added 339,000 non-farm jobs in May, almost twice as many as economists had predicted. The unexpectedly strong figures reflect the country’s remarkably resilient labour market. However, the unemployment rate rose by more than expected, from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April, to 3.7% in May. Wage growth, a key driver of inflation, slowed to 0.3% month-on-month, but remained high at an annual rate of 4.3%.

Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, backtracked on a contentious law that he approved just four days ago. The legislation created a committee to hunt Russian agents; critics—including the European Union and America—argued that it could be misused to harass the opposition. Mr Duda, allied to the ruling party, said he would propose amendments to curtail the panel’s powers to bar citizens from politics.

NATO announced that Jens Stoltenberg, its secretary-general, will meet Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, this weekend to discuss Sweden joining the military alliance. Turkey has delayed the expansion—it accuses Sweden of harbouring terrorists. Sweden expects that a harsher anti-terror law, which came into effect on Thursday, will have satisfied Mr Erdogan’s demands.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, urged Kosovo to hold new local elections after a disputed vote triggered weeks of violent unrest. In April, Kosovo’s Serbian minority boycotted an election in the north of the country, allowing the Albanian majority to elect a new slate of mayors on a turnout of less than 4%. Subsequent protests have injured 30 NATO peacekeepers and over 50 demonstrators.

Japan’s fertility rate fell for a seventh consecutive year in 2022, reaching a new low of 1.257 births per woman. The pandemic exacerbated the country’s woes of an ageing and shrinking population: deaths shot up by 9% to a record 1.57m last year, and marriage rates have slowed. The government plans to spend 3.5trn yen ($25bn) a year to support parents in the hope of reversing the trend.

Word of the week: guochao, meaning “national wave” in Chinese, applied to goods that appeal to nostalgic consumers. Read the full story.


PHOTO: EPA

Asia’s big security gathering kicks off

This weekend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore is bringing together defence officials, military chiefs, diplomats, journalists and weapons-makers from around the world to discuss security in the Asia-Pacific region.

Tensions between America and China will dominate discussion. But there won’t be much dialogue between the world’s two largest economies. China declined a request from the Pentagon for a meeting in Singapore between Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, and Li Shangfu, China’s new defence minister (pictured). China has demanded that America lift sanctions imposed on Mr Li in 2018—when he oversaw arms purchases from Russia—before a meeting can take place. Speaking at the summit, Mr Austin said he was “deeply concerned” that China was unwilling to discuss “mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries”.

President Joe Biden now faces a difficult choice: risk appearing soft on China by lifting the sanctions, or keep them and forfeit military talks. Relations between the two countries are at a low ebb. If China and America do not start a dialogue, the risks of miscommunication and accidental confrontation will only grow.

PHOTO: AP

America’s mayors meet

At least 200 mayors from cities across America are gathering this weekend in Columbus, Ohio, for an annual shindig, the United States Conference of Mayors. Violent crime is likely to dominate the conversation. Though murder rates seem to be dropping again in many of America’s biggest cities, they remain far higher than they were before the pandemic. Homelessness and mental health, intertwined challenges that have prompted new policies to compel treatment in New York City and in California, will also be big topics of discussion.

The meeting will probably conclude with a demand for policy changes from the federal government: in particular, for stricter rules on the purchase of guns. In this realm and others, America’s mayors—most of whom are Democrats—are in lock step with the Biden administration. Last month, the largest city with a Republican mayor, Jacksonville in Florida, voted him out. Of America’s 40 biggest cities, only five have Republican leaders; not one city with a population of more than 1m is run by a Republican.

PHOTO: AP

The UAE’s next steps into space

The United Arab Emirates Space Agency is only nine years old, but it had an auspicious start when its probe Hope reached Mars in 2021. Now the Emiratis want to go farther, beyond the red planet to the rock-strewn hinterland called the asteroid belt. Their mission, announced earlier this week and to be launched in 2028, will take the form of a grand tour of seven asteroids in seven years, none of which has yet been explored.

The MBR Explorer (named after Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, UAE’s prime minister) will be made mostly at home by local startups. Its final destination, in 2035, will be the curiously red asteroid Justitia, thought to harbour ice below its surface, and—maybe—clues to the origins of life. As well as solving the mystery of Justitia, the mission represents a new player betting big on space.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Women’s Champions League is Barcelona’s to lose

Which European football team can claim to have won all but two of its league matches this year? For all of Manchester City’s success this season, it cannot match the dominance of Barcelona Femení, who on Saturday play in the Women’s Champions League final against VfL Wolfsburg.

Barcelona, as with its all-conquering men’s team of the late 2000s, has achieved success in its own way. Though the club could afford to recruit any player it would like, Spanish footballers dominate the squad. The emergence of talents like Vicky López and Cláudia Pina from the club’s youth system suggests a desire to build from within. When coach Lluís Cortés resigned in 2021, he was replaced by his 29-year-old assistant, Jonatan Giráldez. Wolfsburg will not be a pushover: it won 19 of its 22 matches in the Frauen-Bundesliga, coming second to Bayern Munich. But Barça is the heavy favourite, poised to deliver a win to its own blueprint.

PHOTO: EPA

Weekend profile: Alberto Núnez Feijóo, Spain’s potential next prime minister

Many Spaniards could be forgiven for heading to Google last weekend, after Alberto Núnez Feijóo led the centre-right People’s Party to sweeping regional-election success. The result prompted Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s socialist prime minister, to call early national elections. About Mr Sánchez, everyone in Spain seems to have a firm and unmovable opinion. The same can hardly be said of Mr Feijóo, who has been on the national political scene for just over a year.

The previous PP leader, Pablo Casado, was young, clever and fiery. The party’s other biggest figure, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, leader of the Madrid region, is a polarising attention-machine. The wry Mr Feijóo might be the first to acknowledge he is not known for these qualities. For 13 years he ran the north-western region of Galicia. Long known for isolation and poverty, it has gradually approached Spain’s national average in GDP per person. He won four absolute majorities for the PP in the region. So when Mr Casado was ousted last year during a tussle with Ms Ayuso, the party quickly rallied around the adult-seeming, quietly victorious Mr Feijóo.

Born in 1961 in Os Peares, a town in Galicia, he lived with his parents and grandparents in a house with no bathroom. His father, a construction foreman, was unemployed when Mr Feijoo graduated in law from university. Aspirations of becoming a judge went by the wayside; he got a job in the civil service before climbing the ranks of the PP.

In his year-and-a-bit of party leadership he has mostly employed a moderate tone rarely heard in today’s toxic Spanish politics. He has been pragmatic on policy, promising that his (traditionally Catholic-affiliated) party would peacefully accept the Constitutional Court’s ruling guaranteeing a right to abortion. He swears off dealing with the political heirs of ETA, a Basque separatist group that inflicted decades of terrorism on Spain. A Galician speaker, he promotes Spain’s regional languages, calling for “cordial bilingualism”. This may have helped him boost the PP’s usually dismal vote in Catalonia.

Unlike the smooth-talking Mr Sánchez, Mr Feijóo does not speak English (a handicap that will be all the more noticeable if he becomes prime minister during Spain’s European Union presidency, which begins on July 1st). Asked if he was taking classes in the language last year, he said with a self-deprecating laugh that he was “taking classes in everything” since assuming national leadership. He may have to hurry his studies further still.

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President Joe Biden said a deal to raise America’s debt ceiling was “very close”, as weeks of negotiations with representatives of the Republican Party appeared to bear fruit. Earlier Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, pushed back the “X-date” by four days to June 5th. That is when she says the government will run out of money unless the borrowing limit is raised.

Oleksiy Danilov, a member of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s war cabinet, told the BBC that Ukraine was ready to launch its counter-offensive. On Friday Ukraine said it had shot down ten Russian missiles and more than 20 drones launched overnight. At least two people were killed and 30 injured in Dnipro after a missile hit a hospital. In Kharkiv a fire reportedly broke out in an oil depot after it was struck twice.

The governor of Pskov, a Russian region, said a strike by two drones had damaged an oil-pipeline building near the border with Belarus. Meanwhile, Russia dismissed America’s criticism of its plan to move nuclear weapons to Belarus—the first deployment outside its borders since 1991. Russia’s embassy in America said Belarus and Russia had a “sovereign right” to ensure their security.

Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vucic, said he would step down as leader of his party but remain as president. His government has faced multiple crises in recent weeks. On Friday Mr Vucic ordered army units towards the border of Kosovo, after a group of ethnic Serbs clashed with police there. He has also faced widespread protests after two mass shootings in Serbia.

Iran exchanged fire with the Taliban on the Afghan border, exacerbating a conflict over water rights. This month Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s president, warned Afghanistan not to restrict his country’s rights to the Helmand river, which flows into Lake Hamun, on the border. Its water is a vital resource: Iran’s meteorological agency says 97% of the country faces some level of drought.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said that three Chinese naval ships, including the Shandong, an aircraft carrier, had passed through the Taiwan Strait. The ships sailed along the median line, which is the unofficial border between the self-governing island and China, the ministry said. The Shandong played a prominent role in the invasion drills that China ran around Taiwan in April.

An Indian official was suspended after he drained an entire reservoir to recover the mobile phone he had dropped into it. Rajesh Vishwas, a food inspector for the central state of Chhattisgarh, was taking a selfie at the time. He claimed to have received permission to pump out 2m litres of water, in an operation that took three days.

Word of the week: Shukatsu, or “death planning” in Japanese, a term that combines the words “end” and “activity” and is often used in relation to funeral planning. Read the full story.


PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Russia’s Bakhmut “victory” overshadowed

On Thursday Yevgeny Prigozhin—whose Wagner Group recently claimed a Pyrrhic victory in Bakhmut—said his forces had begun withdrawing from the Ukrainian city, soon to be replaced by official Russian soldiers. Wagner’s “win” came at an immense cost: at least 10,000 of the 50,000 men whom it recruited from Russian prisons and a similar number of regular fighters died there, according to Mr Prigozhin.

Outside Bakhmut, the attention of Russian military bloggers has focused on the cross-border raid by pro-Ukrainian militias in Russia’s Belgorod region. Russia says it expelled the groups responsible. Whether or not Kyiv was behind the raid, the humiliation has worsened Russian morale. Now the battlefield has the feel of the lull before a storm—in this case, Ukraine’s much-anticipated counter-offensive.

PHOTO: THE ECONOMIST/VINCENT TULLO

The Kissinger century

On Saturday Henry Kissinger turns 100. As national security adviser and then secretary of state, Mr Kissinger orchestrated America’s rapprochement with China in 1972 and arms-control treaties with the Soviet Union. But he is also a deeply polarising figure, accused of enabling human-rights abuses in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chile and elsewhere. In 1973 he controversially won a Nobel peace prize for negotiating a ceasefire in the Vietnam war.

Although he has not held public office for 46 years, China’s rise makes Mr Kissinger’s analysis of great powers increasingly relevant. Ahead of his centenary he spent more than eight hours in conversation with The Economist. He outlined his deep concerns about the state of relations between America and China. “We are on the path to… confrontation”, he warned, because “both sides have convinced themselves that the other represents a strategic danger”. But Mr Kissinger also laid out his strategy for avoiding world war three—through realism, dialogue and leadership.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Winners anointed at Cannes

On Saturday the main prizes will be handed out at the 76th annual Cannes Film Festival, including the coveted best-in-show award, the Palme d’Or.

One hotly tipped contender is “The Zone of Interest”, which dramatises the daily lives of Rudolf Höss (Christian Friedel), the commandant of the Auschwitz concentration camp, and his wife Hedwig (Sandra Hüller, a favourite in the Best Actress category). Directed by Jonathan Glazer, it was adapted from the novel by Martin Amis, who died on the day of its premiere, May 19th.

Several of the festival’s highest-profile films were shown “out of competition”, so are not eligible for awards. They include “Killers Of The Flower Moon”, a true-crime saga directed by Martin Scorsese, and “Jeanne du Barry”, a French costume drama starring Johnny Depp, who has had two recent court battles relating to domestic-abuse allegations. Protesters were unhappy that Cannes gave him the red-carpet treatment, even if it can’t give him a prize.

PHOTO: ALAMY

A French Open without its king

Few athletes have dominated an event like Rafael Nadal at the French Open. Mr Nadal has won the grand-slam title, one of tennis’s four most prestigious prizes, 14 times. But for the first time since 2004 the Spaniard, who is injured, will not feature in this year’s tournament, which starts on Sunday. His absence opens the door for his great nemesis, Novak Djokovic. Should the Serb win, he would overtake Mr Nadal as the man with the most grand-slam titles (23) and cement his claim as the greatest male tennis player ever.

But Mr Djokovic is himself battling injuries. He will also have to overcome a new generation of young prodigies, led by Carlos Alcaraz, a 20-year-old who is the world’s top-ranked player and the bookies’ favourite. Many consider the Spaniard the heir to Mr Nadal. The crown could soon be passed.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Weekend profile: Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s incoming president

When Bola Tinubu is inaugurated as Nigeria’s president on Monday, he will move into the official residence. Among his baggage will be plenty of the political and legal sort. The wealthy 71-year-old styles himself as the “Godfather of Lagos”, Nigeria’s sprawling commercial capital, where he was governor for eight years until 2007. His backers say that he cleaned up the city, increased the tax take nearly six-fold and built infrastructure.

Yet his record invites questions. His rivals are still disputing his election win in court and claim it was rigged. Some Nigerians suspect that he pulled strings in dubious ways in the past to help his predecessor as president, Muhammadu Buhari, get elected. Back in 2019, when Mr Buhari was running for a second term, onlookers spotted two armoured vehicles, similar to those used by banks to transport cash, driving into Mr Tinubu’s compound in Lagos. He dismissed any suggestion that he had bought votes. “If I have money…I give it to the people free of charge, as long as [it’s] not to buy votes,” Mr Tinubu explained, less than reassuringly.

Some wonder where his money comes from. His explanations have varied from inheritance and real estate to a large bonus earned while working as an auditor at Deloitte, an accounting firm. In the 1990s the American government froze his assets over his alleged links to the heroin trade. Mr Tinubu denied wrongdoing and reached a settlement with the Americans whereby he forfeited $460,000.

Others question how he so impressively increased Lagos’s tax take. Last year he settled a lawsuit accusing him of secretly owning most of a firm that had won a contract to collect taxes on behalf of Lagos state during his governorship. Court papers alleged that it earned a commission of 10% on all revenues collected there. Mr Tinubu again denied wrongdoing.

Mr Tinubu now faces one of the world’s toughest in-trays. Many Nigerians also question whether he has the energy—and health—to tackle it. He is often abroad for medical trips, including a recent stay in Paris. As the presidential race last year heated up Mr Tinubu had been absent from the public eye for so long that he released a video on Twitter of himself pedalling an exercise bike. “Many have said I have died”, he posted. “Well…Nope”.

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The ocean is as important to the climate as the atmosphere

But only now is it beginning to be studied properly

Mar 8th 2023 | WASHINGTON, DC
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For homo sapiens, a dry-land species, discussions of the climate and how it is changing tend to revolve around what is going on in the atmosphere. This is a dangerously parochial attitude, for the atmosphere is but one of two fluid systems circulating above Earth’s solid surface. The other, the ocean, is in many ways the more important of the pair.

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It is the circulation of the ocean which, by redistributing heat, limits the temperature difference between tropics and poles to about 30°C. Were the atmosphere alone responsible for moving heat, that difference would be more like 110°C. And, when it comes to anthropogenic global warming, the problem would be far greater without the ocean’s buffering effect.

Not only does the ocean absorb heat which would otherwise remain in the air, it also swallows a third of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity. Though that makes seawater more acid (or, strictly speaking, less alkaline), which may harm some marine species, much of the CO2 involved ends up in the abyss, where it can cause no greenhouse effect, and where it is likely to remain for many centuries.

 

The poverty of human understanding of ocean circulation, compared with that of the atmosphere, is therefore lamentable. And the aaas meeting was treated to an excellent lamentation on the matter by Susan Lozier of the Georgia Institute of Technology, who was also last year’s president of the American Geophysical Union.

Oceanographers worked out in the second half of the 20th century that the system’s engine room is in the North Atlantic. Here, in a process called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (amoc), water moving up from the tropics cools, thus increasing in density, until it becomes so heavy that it starts to sink, pulling more water up from farther south to replace it. Having descended as much as 3km, it then heads south itself.

Though some oceanic overturning of this sort goes on elsewhere, 90% of it happens in the North Atlantic. And it is this North Atlantic overturning which drives what is often described as a planet-spanning conveyor belt of connected currents.

That, at least, is conventional thinking. But Dr Lozier reckons it a bad analogy. A conveyor belt conveys an image of smooth and linear progress. This belt, though, jerks around all over the place, making it far harder to discover what is going on.

A smoothly moving belt need be examined only occasionally to check if its rate of progress is varying. So when, in 2005, a paper in Nature reported, on the basis of the five pertinent shipborne surveys which had been made since 1957, a 30% drop in the volume of amoc between 1992 and 2004, there was serious concern. If such a fall continued, it would change weather patterns, particularly in Europe, by altering planetary heat distribution. It would also reduce the rate at which CO2 was carried into the deep ocean.

 

As it happened, though, 2004 was a turning-point in observations of what is going on, for it saw the beginning of the deployment of a set of recording instruments which are now known as rapid amoc. These monitor the Atlantic a couple of degrees north of the Tropic of Cancer, the part of the world where the surveys reported in the Nature paper had been conducted. rapid amoc was joined in 2014 by an arctic counterpart, osnap, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Programme.

The upshot has been the discovery that the rate of overturning can vary, apparently at random, as much as six-fold during the course of a year. The fall described in the Nature paper was an artefact of an impoverished data set.

Another finding of osnap has been that the details of where overturning happens in the North Atlantic are not as models had predicted. Most turnover, it turns out, occurs on the east side of the ocean, not the west, as previously believed. Though this may not matter much in the grand scheme of climate change, it is a further example of how poorly people have understood what is going on at sea.

The next step for osnap is to extend its remit into looking at carbon dioxide uptake. And more systematic studies are getting going in other parts of the ocean, too, as landlubbing humans are, at last, taking proper notice of the hitherto-neglected 71% of the surface of the planet they are pleased to call “Earth”, but which might, in truth, be better dubbed “Sea”. 

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Kevin McCarthy, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, said that a deal to raise America’s debt ceiling was “possible” by the end of the week. On Tuesday he met President Joe Biden and demanded spending cuts in exchange for increasing the government’s borrowing cap. Janet Yellen, America’s treasury secretary, has repeatedly warned that the government could default on its debt as soon as June 1st. Mr Biden will shorten his upcoming trip to Asia for the G7 summit as negotiations continue, cancelling planned stops in Papua New Guinea and Australia.

Liz Truss became the first former British prime minister in decades to visit Taiwan, where she called for an “economic NATO” to take a tougher stance against China and urged Rishi Sunak, Britain’s current prime minister, to declare China a security threat. China’s embassy in London called the visit a “dangerous political stunt”.

The boss of OpenAI suggested empowering American regulators to licence and audit artificial-intelligence models. Testifying before Congress, Sam Altman, whose startup created ChatGPT, said that AI firms should be given “guidelines about what’s expected in terms of disclosure”. America has so far taken a more laissez-faire approach towards AI regulation than Britain or the EU.

Japan’s economy expanded by an annualised rate of 1.6% between January and March, the first time in three quarters it has grown. That was faster than economists’ predicted growth rate of 0.7%. Strong domestic demand helped offset declining exports, which fell for the first time in six quarters. Japanese stocks rose to a 33-year high on Wednesday.

UBS, a Swiss bank, reckons it got a multi-billion-dollar cash boost from its takeover of Credit Suisse, a former competitor. The combined firms’ “negative goodwill”—a type of accounting gain generated when companies buy a rival at below tangible book value—reached $34.8bn as of the end of 2022. But the merger will also increase UBS’s legal and regulatory costs, which could reach $4bn over 12 months.

Ukraine’s Supreme Court dismissed its chief justice, Vsevolod Kniaziev, after he was detained on corruption charges. Prosecutors allege that Mr Kniaziev took a $2.7m bribe from an oligarch, Konstiantyn Zhevago, in exchange for a favourable verdict. (Mr Zhevago denied wrongdoing.) Ukrainian authorities, keen to ensure continued Western support, have recently cracked down on government graft.

A French judge issued an international arrest warrant for the governor of Lebanon’s central bank as part of a probe into alleged theft of public funds. Riad Salameh had failed to appear at a hearing in Paris. He, along with his brother and assistant, are under investigation in five European countries and Lebanon. He denies the accusations.

Fact of the day: 45%, the G7 members’ share of global GDP in 2021, down from around 70% in the late 1980s. Read the full story.


PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Africa’s debt trouble

On Wednesday the IMF’s board is expected to approve a $3bn bailout for Ghana—the country’s 17th. After months of wrangling, Ghana’s bilateral creditors, including China, promised to negotiate a debt restructuring. A $600m tranche is expected immediately. Though more work will be required to unlock further funding, the news has already boosted Ghana’s struggling government bonds and flagging currency.

Ghana’s progress, and China’s willingness to engage, is a hopeful sign for other heavily indebted African countries that may need help in the future, such as Kenya. Many are in deep trouble caused by overspending, covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, which drained foreign-currency reserves through higher fuel costs. This year, on average, 17% of government revenues in Africa will go on servicing external debt, the highest share since 1999 (after which rich countries made big write-offs). Domestic debt servicing will also chew up cash needed for schools and hospitals. African governments face a damaging new age of austerity.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Taiwan’s opposition picks its candidate

In January next year Taiwanese will vote in a successor to President Tsai Ing-wen, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, who is ineligible for another term. The Kuomintang, Taiwan’s main opposition party, announced its candidate for the job on Wednesday: Hou Yu-ih, the moderate mayor of New Taipei City. He has occasionally come ahead of Lai Ching-te, the DPP’s candidate, in public opinion polls. Mr Hou’s main contender for the role had been Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Foxconn, the main supplier to Apple.

One crucial factor in the election will be the positions the candidates take on Taiwan’s sovereignty. Mr Lai and the DPP support strengthening the island’s de facto independence. Mr Hou has not yet said where he stands. But the Kuomintang itself maintains that China and Taiwan are loosely one country. Given voters’ fear of China’s increased territorial aggression, that is likely to scupper KMT’s chances.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Hollywood’s writers strike on

“Upfronts” week, when studios and streamers pitch future content to advertisers, is normally an excuse for New York’s glitterati to party. This year, though, it is haunted by pay disputes. Members of the Writers Guild of America, the trade union for television and film writers, have been on strike since May 2nd. They are picketing companies’ presentations throughout the week. On Wednesday they are expected to demonstrate at events for Warner Brothers and YouTube. Netflix moved online its soirée planned for that evening to avoid a ruckus.

The strike is a consequence of the way in which streaming has upended entertainment business models, damaging writers’ salaries and working conditions. It is snarling large parts of the industry. Some shows and films have halted production. Ceremonies for the Peabody and Tony awards, which celebrate the best of broadcasting and Broadway, respectively, will be watered-down affairs. Writers used to working behind the scenes now seem to be starring in their own Hollywood drama.

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

An ominous climate forecast

On Wednesday the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation will deliver its predictions for the next five years. They are unlikely to be reassuring. In the forecast for 2022 to 2026 that it issued last year, the WMO put at 48% the odds that, for at least one of those years, average global temperatures would be 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels. In 2015 the odds of that happening were close to zero. They seem almost certain to rise again, not least because El Niño, a weather pattern that contributes to higher global temperatures, is about to take hold.

Keeping long-term global warming below 1.5°C was the more ambitious target of the Paris agreement signed in 2015. Temporarily higher temperatures alone do not prove that goal is out of reach, but it increasingly appears to be so. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that no matter what action humanity takes it is now more likely than not that the 1.5°C threshold will be enduringly breached by 2040.

PHOTO: CHRISTIE'S IMAGES LTD. 2023

A rare sale of JAR jewels

Diane von Furstenberg, a Belgian fashion designer, has labelled Joel Arthur Rosenthal “the Fabergé of our time”. The extravagant pieces created by JAR, as he is known, are so prized that fine-jewellery collectors (a typically refined crowd) almost descend into brawls when they come up for auction.

Mr Rosenthal, an American based in Paris, never advertises and sells mostly by word-of-mouth. On Wednesday, though, the largest collection of JAR jewels ever auctioned will appear at Christie’s in Geneva. The collection, from a private owner, showcases the bold, three-dimensional designs that are Mr Rosenthal’s signature. The 25 pieces include a pair of pansy-shaped earrings in multi-coloured gemstones and a pair of geraniums made from carved nephrite jade. A pair of diamond ivy-leaf earrings, designed in 1991, have an estimate of CHF300,000-500,000 ($334,500-557,540). But JAR has some catching up to do: his most expensive piece at auction (a ruby-studded brooch) fetched $4.3m in 2012; Fabergé’s “Rothschild” egg sold for $12.6m at Christie’s in 2007.

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Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, arrived in Germany where he will angle for more arms to help repel Russia’s invasion. The German government announced €2.7bn ($2.95bn) of military aid for Ukraine ahead of his arrival. Earlier, Mr Zelensky met Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, in Rome. Despite some members of her right-wing coalition having expressed pro-Kremlin views—most notably Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister—Ms Meloni has pledged her government’s support for the war-torn country.

Voting began in Thailand’s general election, with a good chance that voters will eject the prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former general who seized power in a coup in 2014. The Pheu Thai party is expected to romp to victory. It is led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, a prime minister the army overthrew in 2006. The military establishment may not cede power graciously.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s leader, accused opposition parties of collaborating with America in an effort to oust him from power in the presidential election on Sunday. Several polls have suggested that Mr Erdogan is behind the umbrella opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Mr Kilicdaroglu would need to win more than 50% of the vote to win outright and stop the contest going to a run-off later this month.

America and the EU will co-ordinate their controls on exporting semiconductors and other critical technology to China, according to a draft statement seen by Reuters. They are also expected to announce joint measures to address Chinese economic coercion at a meeting in Sweden at the end of May. The report comes amid concerns, particularly among American officials, that approaches to China on each side of the Atlantic may diverge.

Congress, India’s main opposition party, won an emphatic victory in elections in the southern state of Karnataka, defeating the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. The vote is the first of five crucial state elections this year that will set the tone for national parliamentary elections, due by April 2024. Rahul Gandhi, Congress’s leader, lost his parliamentary seat this year having been convicted of defamation.

Israel and Islamic Jihad, a militant group in Palestine, agreed to a ceasefire to end five days of fighting in which 33 people died. The violence erupted when Israel killed three Islamist commanders it accused of planning attacks on their soil, resulting in the worst cross-border fire since a 10-day war in 2021. Many are sceptical that the latest truce, brokered by Egypt, addresses the underlying issues in the conflict.

Sweden won the Eurovision Song Contest, a staggeringly popular cheesefest. Loreen sang the winning entry, “Tattoo”, the second time she has triumphed at the competition. Sweden has now prevailed in the annual contest a record-equalling seven times. Its first success came in 1974 with a then-obscure band named ABBA.

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